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Rupee likely to depreciate amid persistent FII outflows, widening trade deficit; USDINR to trade in this range

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The Indian Rupee is likely to depreciate further amid worsening global scenario and pressure on the domestic assets. The steps taken by RBI could definitely have a short-term psychological positive impact on foreign fund inflows but the worries remain intact as long as capital outflows counties and the trade deficit widen. Rupee declined against the US dollar on Thursday as the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve increased the possibility of another aggressive rate hike this month. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 79.05 and finally ended at 79.13, down 19 paise over its previous close.

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

“Rupee traded in a narrow range after falling to fresh all-time lows earlier this week. On the domestic front, an announcement from the RBI led to a bit of appreciation in the currency but that was short lived in yesterday’s session. On the other hand, major crosses witnessed sharp up move as the dollar retraced from higher levels. Pound held on to its gains after Boris Johnson said he was quitting as prime minister following a rush of ministerial resignations and calls for him to go. Today, focus will be on the non-farm payrolls number from the US and better-than-expected economic data could keep the dollar supported at lower level. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade with a positive bias and quote in the range of 78.70 and 79.50.”

Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities

“USDINR spot closed 12 paise lower at 79.17 as newly unveiled measures from RBI improved sentiments and also falling oil prices boosted Rupee’s appeal. Even though we do not expect any significant increase in capital flows over the near term but it will have a positive sentimental impact. Once the risk appetite improves in global markets, foreign capital flows can increase in India. For the time being, we could see USDINR trade within a range of 78.70 and 79.50 on spot.”

Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors

“The RBI’s recent announcements were not validated for rupee to strengthen immediately as it might take time for those policy changes to actual revive the inflows back to India. However, the pace of outflow might get slow leading to a steady fall in rupee value. Meanwhile, the responsibility of preventing the spillovers on rupee remains with the RBI as it makes use of its forex reserves intensively. Its action above 79.50 will be closely watched in to spot, futures and forward markets as the move above 80 per dollar is closely accepted reality by the investors. Overall, the upside for the rupee remains open with the worsening global scenario and pressure on the domestic assets while the downside below 78.80 will be watched to gauge any short term trend reversal. Meanwhile, short term range could be compressed between 78.80 to 79.50 levels waiting for further cues.”

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